All the major news outlets have their own heat map and to my eye they area all seem OK with a few outliers (far from a comprehensive list). Fox numbers seem pretty divergent from what I've seen elsewhere and no surprise it gives McCain the electoral lead (their map).
ABC seems to have sidesteped the issue by not posting any heat map data (for 2008 at least). Instead you can go in and tweak the results to see what conclusion you can calculate.
The two that seem pretty solid and simple to get data from are...
The stayed sorces out of the way, I have been frequeting a couple unique sites for predictions of the more geeky type.
First the previously mentioned Pollster.com which not only has some fascinating slices of the data but they have lots of commentators blogging about (now get this) not politics but the act of polling itself (dare I say science of polling?).
Finally I go to one of the original futures markets - IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets). Here you buy shares (like on the stock market) for who you think will win instead of being polled on who you want to win. Their sites is not nearly as fancy as some of the above but they have been doing this a long time and so they've historical results to look at. Here is the direct link which can be tough to find your first time there (then you'll wanna click through to "Current Quotes").
I have yet to find a site that redraws the US map such as to proportionally reflect the electorial votes (I think this was nytimes.com previous). I'd love to know find such a map or generally know what other sites folks are looking at so please comment or email me.
Here is the article that sparked this post...
via www.pollster.com on 9/9/08
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